March 29, 2016

My Case For Donald Trump

You're probably wondering why I'm now jumping on the Trump bandwagon.  Those who know me as a die-hard Sanders supporter might be a little confused, so let me explain.

Yesterday I was watching an episode of The Ring of Fire featuring Farron Cousins and he made a really good point that I can't disagree with...  If the Republican party successfully squeezes Donald out of the nomination, it might not be a good thing for the Democratic party, and here's why - let's play out the scenario...

At the Republican Convention in Cleveland the RNC manages to tweak the rules and somehow take the nomination away from Donald Trump, who they universally despise and fear.  Then what?  Forget about the fact that their next in line is Ted Cruz.  Seriously - is he a better alternative?  But that's not my point.

If Donald steamrolls into Cleveland with the largest number of delegates and DOESN'T come out with the nomination, he will probably run as an Independent, which he has all along threatened to do if the Republican party doesn't treat him right.  And frankly, I wouldn't blame him.  However, what happens if Donald runs as an Independent?  Sure, the Democrat automatically wins since the Republican vote is split, but the Democrat is going to win anyhow.  The problem is that in this scenario, there will be a larger turnout of Conservative voters, and that will have a "yuuuuuge" impact down-ballot.

It's not good enough to just keep the White House in Democratic hands.  Democrats also have to make inroads into both the House and Senate.  No one is seriously postulating that Democrats could take back the heavily-gerrymandered House of Representatives, but I think it's entirely possible that Democrats can take back the Senate.  There are many more currently-Republican seats up for re-election this year, and some of them even in states which Obama won in 2012.  Couple that with the Scalia Supreme Court fiasco, and there is even some glimmer of hope of gaining a Super majority in the Senate if the Progressive turnout (with all its excitement) is high and the Conservative turnout is low.

For those reasons, I believe our best scenario in the General Election is Trump vs. Sanders.  Donald is a candidate whose favorables are very low and his un-favorables are very high.  The bulk of the Conservative community cannot get behind him because they see through his racist, misogynist, narcissistic excuse for a candidacy.  Will he coalesce the Republican party behind him?  Will he garner the Independents?  Of course not.  He has his White Supremacist base, and those isolationists who are ignorant enough to believe anything he says (as if Mexico will fund a border wall).  But with him at the top of the Republican ticket, I have to believe specifically-Republican turnout will be very low.

Conversely, with Sanders at the top of the ticket, with all of the excitement he has generated over the course of his campaign, with the Progressive community on the uprise, I firmly believe that Democratic turnout will be very high.  I do not believe that of Hillary Clinton.  In fact, with Clinton as the nominee, I think Progressive turnout will be extraordinarily low (unless she does something really smart like putting Bernie or Elizabeth Warren on her ticket as VP).  Her favorability ratings actually coincide with Donald's, albeit not as extreme.

In conclusion, I'm rooting for Trump for the Republican nomination, but Sanders for the Democratic nomination.  And maybe, just maybe, our country will start moving in the right direction, away from the plutocracy we have now.


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